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DEVELOPMENT OF AN IT TOOL TO ESTIMATE THE THERAPEUTIC NEEDS OFHOSPITALISED PATIENTS WITH COVID19 INFECTION BASED ON SIR EPIDEMIOLOGICALMODEL

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European Statement

Selection, Procurement and Distribution

Author(s)

Daniele Leonardi Vinci, Adriano Meccio , Alessio Provenzani, Piera Polidori

Why was it done?

The COVID 19 pandemic unprecedently challenged National Health Services to assure adequate patient care, despite a constantly escalating drugs demand. This complex situation requires appropriate planning to avoid misleading estimations, which would have consequences on patients and overall resources available.

What was done?

We created a tool to perform a timely estimation of the drug needs to treat the COVID-patients based on epidemiological forecasting.

How was it done?

The tool’s epidemiological forecasting was based on a compartmental model in which the population is divided into three compartments (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed, SIR), and transmission parameters are specified to define the rate at which persons move between stages. The appropriate data entry was guaranteed by the creation of a form in which users can enter information regarding: The population considered, the R0 calculation, the number of already known infected cases, the application of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and the number of hospital beds. The drugs need for the forecasted patients was calculated according to a list of critical care drugs compiled consulting previous published scientific works, national and international guidelines. The list includes 51 drugs belonging to different therapeutic group, such as: antiarrhythmics, antibiotics, antipyretics, antivirals, heparins, IV-fluids, local anesthetics, neuromuscular blockade agents, sedative agents and vasopressors. For each drug it was estimated the percentage average ICU uptake for therapeutic group and active principle.

What has been achieved?

A tool consisting of an excel template, that, based on the information inserted, automatically calculate the number of patients classified by the intensity of care (hospitalized not-ICU, Hospitalized ICU, ventilated, intubated or with shock) and creates a table that includes, for each drug to be used, the following information: therapeutic group, active principle, dosage considered, pharmaceutical form, total dosage for patients considered and total quantity of unit doses for patients considered. The tool is also made adaptable to different clinical situations, through the possibility of editing the assumptions adopted regarding the epidemiological and therapeutical parameters or the inclusion of new items in the drugs list.

What next?

Our tool represents an opportunity for the immediate and efficient estimation of the drugs necessary to assist the COVID19 patients during emergency scenarios. It will be periodically updated as new evidences will be available.

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